Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.85 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the yen. As a result, the pair dropped by 40 points, but it didn't reach the target level. During the U.S. session, there is no data expected to pressure the dollar, so it's possible that after a downward correction of the pair, demand for the dollar will return. This could be supported by speeches from FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Susan M. Collins. Politicians' statements will be crucial in determining the further direction of USD/JPY. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to implement scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 148.05 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 148.64 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 148.64, I will exit my purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 30-35 points against the level). We can only expect the pair to rise today after a firm stance from the Fed. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 147.72 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 148.05 and 148.64.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level 147.72 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 147.17, where I will close my sell positions and simultaneously open buy positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 points against the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of dovish comments from Fed representatives. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 148.05 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 147.72 and 147.17.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious in making decisions about entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's advisable to remain out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations in currency rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.