Analisis Forex & Kajian: 17.03.2025 - Markets Will Remain in a...

17.03.2025 10:15 AM

Markets Will Remain in a Depressed State for Some Time (we expect a renewed decline in #Bitcoin and #Litecoin)

Global financial markets continue to be heavily influenced by the policies of the U.S. president, who is disrupting the established economic and geopolitical framework that existed before him. Naturally, this is affecting the markets. Despite this, market participants are trying to anticipate future developments by closely monitoring incoming economic data and decisions from the Federal Reserve.

This week, investors will be focused on the outcome of the Fed meeting. While no changes to interest rates are expected, close attention will be paid to the final resolution and, most importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the press conference.

The week ahead is packed with key events. Crucial data on retail sales, industrial production, and housing market indicators will be released, such as building permits and existing home sales. Additionally, monetary policy meetings will take place at the central banks of Japan, China, the UK, and Switzerland. Inflation reports from Canada and Japan will be published, while China's statistics agency will provide data on retail sales, industrial production, housing price indexes, and fixed asset investments. In Europe, attention will be on employment figures, the UK's GFK consumer confidence index, Germany's economic sentiment indicator, New Zealand's GDP growth rate, and Canada's retail sales figures.

So, what do market participants expect from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting? The Fed is anticipated to maintain its key interest rate within the 4.25%–4.50% range, continuing the pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in January this year. Fed officials will likely adopt a cautious stance due to the ongoing economic uncertainty driven by Donald Trump's policies.

How might this affect the markets?

As I have previously noted, market participants are hesitant to fully commit to financial assets given the current uncertainty surrounding the consequences of Trump's policies. The real risk of a localized collapse in the U.S. economy remains, as ongoing trade wars could push the country into a systemic crisis. In such a scenario, stock markets would continue to decline, and the cryptocurrency market would follow suit. The U.S. dollar could also face significant pressure from uncertainty and, at best, consolidate sideways near the 104.00 level on the ICE index. Meanwhile, as a safe-haven asset, gold might finally break through the key psychological level of $3,000 per ounce.

What can we expect in the markets today?

I believe we should anticipate a continuation of the previous trend, characterized by a lack of strong movements ahead of the Fed's monetary policy decision.

Forecast of the Day:

#Bitcoin

The token remains under pressure due to uncertainty stemming from U.S. presidential policies. Its inability to rise above the strong resistance level of 84,545.00 could lead to a renewed decline toward 78,000.00.

#Litecoin

The token is under intense pressure due to uncertainty linked to the U.S. president and his administration's policies. If it fails to break above the strong resistance level of 94.00, a further drop to 86.00 could follow.

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