empty
05.02.2025 10:00 AM
S&P500: gap closed

"To subdue the enemy without fighting is the pinnacle of skill." This is precisely what Donald Trump is trying to achieve. His decision to postpone the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada until March 1 allowed the S&P 500 to quickly close its February gap. If investors were frightened, that fear vanished almost instantly.

Once again, greed dominates the stock market, but the real question is—how long will it last? One thing is clear: high volatility is here to stay!

Over the past four years, investors have come to know Trump's tactics inside out. The Republican president is seen as a showman—loudly threatening tariffs, only to cancel them later. But no one expected him to reverse course as quickly as he did in early February.

The S&P 500 opened February with a downward gap, only to quickly recover. Given that the index's fundamental valuation remains near record highs, this should surprise no one.

Dynamic of S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio

This image is no longer relevant

Investors need to get used to the rollercoaster ride. For those who believe that Trump's bark is worse than his bite, it might be time to shift focus to assets outside the US, which at least appear less expensive.

However, the risk of prolonged tariffs remains high. The White House sees import duties as a tool to balance US trade, generate additional foreign revenue, and bring manufacturing back to the US. And Trump is starting to wield this weapon.

The real question is how protectionist policies will impact the US economy. During his first presidential term, Trump created a cushion of fiscal stimulus before escalating trade wars. This time, things are different.

Bond market signals stagflation risks

The bond market reacted sharply, indicating a rising risk of stagflation.

  • Yields on short-term bonds surged in response to tariff news on Canada, Mexico, and China.
  • Long-term bond yields, on the other hand, went down.

This environment is unfavorable for the stock market. No surprise that Wall Street analysts are cutting earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies.

Forecasts of S&P 500 earnings

This image is no longer relevant

According to Goldman Sachs, even without factoring in tighter financial conditions and changes in consumer and corporate behavior, Trump's tariffs could reduce profit forecasts by 2–3% and increase the risk of a 5% pullback in the S&P 500.

This image is no longer relevant

However, if the tariffs haven't been imposed yet, there's nothing to fear. Right? Even the one-day delay in US-China trade talks failed to rattle investors.

For some reason, everyone seems convinced that the 10% tariff against China will be scrapped as well. But isn't it a bit too early to celebrate?

Technical outlook for S&P 500

On the daily chart, the rapid gap closure and confident breakout above fair value signal that bulls have regained control. A successful breakout of the pivot resistance at 6,040 would provide a solid argument for long positions.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. La inflación en Tokio se acelera, pero el yen sigue siendo vulnerable

El informe publicado hoy sobre el crecimiento de la inflación en la capital de Japón resultó estar en la "zona verde". La publicación permitió a los vendedores del par usd/jpy

Irina Manzenko 12:25 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 28 de marzo. La libra no tuvo tiempo de caer, pero volvió a subir.

El par de divisas GBP/USD volvió a cotizarse al alza el jueves, aunque hace unos días comenzó una especie de corrección bajista. El mercado incluso reaccionó a un informe débil

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 28 de marzo. A Donald Trump le gusta hacer sorpresas.

El par de divisas EUR/USD mantuvo una inclinación bajista durante el jueves, pero se negoció al alza durante el día. La volatilidad volvió a ser baja, lo que indica

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-03-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY. El yen se devalua a la espera del informe sobre el crecimiento del TCPI

El par usd/jpy mantiene el potencial de un mayor crecimiento. El informe sobre el crecimiento del TCPI, que se publicará el viernes, o bien reforzará la tendencia alcista, o provocará

Irina Manzenko 12:13 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Donald Trump volvió a confundir a todos

Ayer, el presidente de EE.UU., Donald Trump, declaró que planea una serie de excepciones a su amplia propuesta de aranceles, lo que se convirtió en la última insinuación velada sobre

Jakub Novak 08:45 2025-03-26 UTC+2

El jefe del Banco de Inglaterra contra los aranceles y a favor del desarrollo de la IA

La intervención de ayer del gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, Andrew Bailey, solo abordó parcialmente la economía del Reino Unido y sus perspectivas. Hablando durante una conferencia en la Universidad

Jakub Novak 08:17 2025-03-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Una semana importante para la libra

La libra espera acontecimientos importantes y significativos. El miércoles se publicará el informe clave sobre el crecimiento de la inflación en el Reino Unido, así como la intervención

Irina Manzenko 12:22 2025-03-24 UTC+2

El ataque a la estación de medición de gas Sudzha solo provocó un aumento temporal de los precios

Los precios del gas natural en Europa registraron un fuerte repunte debido a un ataque contra una estación de bombeo inactiva en la región de Kursk, Rusia. Según

Miroslaw Bawulski 10:29 2025-03-24 UTC+2

Los mercados atrapados en un círculo vicioso sin salida por ahora (posible caída del Bitcoin y del precio del oro)

Los mercados están en estado de confusión debido a la enorme cantidad de noticias negativas que se ciernen sobre ellos sin un final claro a la vista. En este contexto

Pati Gani 11:13 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 17 de marzo. El mercado se ha dormido, la economía no le interesa a nadie.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el viernes "murió" definitivamente. En la ilustración a continuación se puede ver claramente que la volatilidad fue bastante alta en los primeros tres días

Paolo Greco 07:03 2025-03-17 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.